Wednesday, July 30, 2008

The dollar traded near a one-month high

The dollar traded near a one-month high against the euro before a government report that is forecast to show the pace of U.S. economic growth doubled in the second quarter.

The U.S. currency was also near a one-month high versus the yen after a report from ADP Employer Services yesterday showed companies unexpectedly added jobs this month. The industry report is a leading indicator of tomorrow's Labor Department data on nonfarm payrolls. The pound fell toward a three-week low after U.K. consumer confidence slid to the weakest on record.

``The dollar is forming a solid base and further downside moves are limited,'' said Masanobu Ishikawa, general manager of foreign exchange at Tokyo Forex & Ueda Harlow Ltd., Japan's largest currency broker. ``Economic growth data are forecast to show quite good numbers. ADP data underpins sentiment.''

The dollar traded at $1.5582 per euro as of 12:27 p.m. in Tokyo, after touching $1.5522 yesterday, the strongest since June 24. The U.S. currency was at 108.01 yen after reaching 108.33 yesterday, the highest since June 25. The euro traded at 168.30 yen from 168.41 yesterday. The dollar may rise to $1.5520 per euro and 108.30 yen today, Ishikawa forecast.

The pound declined to $1.9802 from $1.9817 yesterday, when it reached $1.9746, the lowest since July 10. GfK NOP's index of consumer confidence fell to minus 39 in July, the lowest since the data began in 1974, the market research organization said today in London.

Australian Dollar

Australia's dollar fell toward its lowest in six weeks after a government report showed retail sales dropped the most since 2002, adding to signs the economy is slowing. The currency slid to 94.37 U.S. cents from 94.71 cents in Asia late yesterday as a Reserve Bank of Australia report showed loans to businesses and consumers rose at the slowest pace in almost six years.

U.S. gross domestic product rose at an annual rate of 2.3 percent in the second quarter after growing 1 percent in the first three months of the year, according to a Bloomberg News survey of economists before the Commerce Department releases the report at 8:30 a.m. in Washington.

``We're waking up to the fact that we will have solid GDP numbers,'' said Michael Woolfolk, senior currency strategist in New York at Bank of New York Mellon, the world's largest custodial bank.

Payrolls Report

The U.S. dollar strengthened yesterday after ADP Employer Services reported that companies added 9,000 jobs in July after cutting a revised 77,000 positions in June. The Labor Department may report tomorrow that non-farm payrolls fell 75,000 this month following a decline of 62,000 in June, according to the median forecast in a Bloomberg News survey.

The U.S. payroll report, which includes government hiring, has shown a reduction in jobs each month this year, while ADP has recorded only two declines.

``The dollar may have hit a major bottom already,'' said Kosuke Hanao, head of foreign exchange in Tokyo at HSBC Bank, Europe's biggest bank by market value. ``But it needs further bullish factors to break through the key 108.60 yen level. Good GDP numbers are not strong enough to push up the dollar above it, especially before important jobs data tomorrow.''

The so-called resistance level of 108.60 yen is near the dollar's four-month high set on June 16. A resistance level marks the point where sellers are expected to outweigh buyers.

The dollar fell to an all-time low of $1.6038 per euro on July 15 on concern losses at financial firms and record fuel prices may prolong the U.S. economic slowdown.

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