Record fuel import costs have sent the current-account balances of South Korea, India and Thailand into deficit, posing ``tremendous headwinds'' for the economies, said Stephen Jen, chief currency economist at Morgan Stanley in London. The impact on inflation and consumer spending has been limited because of fuel subsidies that aren't sustainable, he said.
``The biggest shock to Asia is not the U.S. housing crisis but the oil shock,'' Jen said in an interview. ``Asia was not built on $100 per barrel oil. Even if oil prices stabilize at $100, Asia will have a lot of work to do.''
Crude fell 15 cents to $126.62 a barrel as of 11:20 a.m. Singapore time on the New York Mercantile Exchange, 75 percent higher than a year ago.
Indonesia's rupiah, the Philippine peso and India's rupee will be ``first to go'' as these countries' governments are the least able to maintain subsidies, Jen said.
The rupiah will slide 2.6 percent to 9,367 per dollar this year, the peso 3.4 percent to 45.82, and the rupee 6.4 percent to 45.23, he predicts. South Korea's won will decline 6 percent to 1,076 a dollar and Malaysia's ringgit 3.5 percent to 3.38 per dollar, he added.
Crude prices this week fell to 12-week lows on speculation that global demand will wane as housing slumps and tighter credit curbs economic growth in the U.S. and Europe. Crude is down 14 percent from the record $147.27 reached July 11.
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Asian currencies had a third weekly gain, led by South Korea’s won, on optimism the Federal Reserve will delay any reduction in stimulus after a budget impasse threatened the world’s largest economy.
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